Bitcoin Price Fights to Hold $9.5K to Stave Off a Trend Reversal

On Feb. 20 Bitcoin price surprisingly dropped 8.85%, a move which caught many investors off guard as up to that moment the digital asset had recovered well from the President's Day weekend correction and was trading sideways in the $10,200 range.

Is the current price action a buy the dip opportunity or is Bitcoin on the verge of a significant trend change? Let's check the charts to see.

Despite the shock caused by yesterday's correction Bitcoin price still found support at the high volume node of the volume profile visible range at $9,300 to $9,438.

Bearish scenarioIf buyers continue to believe the current price action is not a 'buy the dip' opportunity the price could drop below the VPVR high volume node and the 200-day moving average at $8,800 where there is another VPVR high volume node.

The shorter timeframe shows the price slowly making higher lows but the purchasing volume is not significant enough to hold the price above $9,600.

Bullish scenarioIf we zoom out to assess Bitcoin's price action since reaching its 2019 top at $13,800 on June 26, 2018, we can see that the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level has been a frequent area where the price has bounced after strong corrections.

Since June 26, 2018, the price has bounced here more than 10 times and yesterday's pullback brought the price to the 38.6% level again.

On the flip side, assuming the price breaks out, we can also see that the last three Bitcoin rallies on October 12, 2019, February 12, 2020, and February 18, 2020, have failed to break above the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.

For the short term, Bitcoin price needs to knock out $9,630 and above this price, $9,750 is likely to function as a level of resistance.

A more convincing maneuver would be to see Bitcoin price overtake the 20-MA of the Bollinger Band indicator and sustain above $9,850.