Modeling altseason, estimating Ethereum, XRP, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin prices using BTC dominance

Published on by Cryptoslate | Published on

If 'altcoin season' happened today what would the cryptocurrency prices look like? What about if Bitcoin continues to reign supreme and BTC dominance keeps rising? We model different BTC dominance scenarios and show the price implications on Ethereum, XRP, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin-providing a best-guess estimate of what the markets could look like.

The last altcoin season started on Dec. 7, 2017, where Bitcoin shortly hit its peak dominance of 69.9 percent.

Altcoin season lasted five weeks until Jan. 13, 2018, where BTC dominance briefly hit a low of 35.0 percent.

Now, Bitcoin's dominance is marching towards the local high of the 2017-18 bull market.

To assist our readers we modeled cryptocurrency prices based on different levels of Bitcoin dominance.

The "Alt Season Dominance" value is the lowest value for Bitcoin dominance during the 2017-2018 bear market and should be used as a maximum for projecting altcoin prices.

"King Season Dominance" somewhat arbitrarily uses the 77 percent dominance predicted by Atlanta Digital Currency Fund co-founder Alistair Milne.

Finally, "Mild Season Dominance" uses 50 percent Bitcoin dominance as an arbitrary middle-ground.

Prices are then extrapolated from changes in this data, giving reasonable estimates of what prices would look given the current market capitalization.

As shown by the model, a return to altseason would yield prices for Ethereum at $526, XRP at $0.656, Bitcoin Cash at $710, and Litecoin at $195 while Bitcoin would drop to $6,797.