Fund execs offer $1M bets that Bitcoin's S2F model won't come true

Chief investment officer of crypto hedge fund Arcane Assets Eric Wall has offered a $1 million bet that the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model will be proven false before 2025.

In a Nov. 12 tweet to his 32,700 followers, Wall laid out the terms of the wager, offering to pay $1 million to anyone who accepts his bet that the stock-to-flow, or S2F, model will be "Broken" in less than five years.

Not uncertain? I bet $1,000,000 that the S2FX model will be broken less than 5 years from now.

PlanB has stated his S2F model sees a glittering future for Bitcoin due to the ongoing reduction in supply, with the analyst estimating that the BTC price will hit between $100,000 and $288,000 by December 2021.

Some in the crypto community do not see the popular model as a reliable indicator for Bitcoin's long-term price action.

Ari Paul, CIO at BlockTower Capital, stated on Twitter that he would give 3:1 odds on the same bet against the S2F model, potentially paying out $3 million for a $1 million wager.

"The reason I'm willing to offer this bet without even having to think about S2FX accuracy at all, is that it's a simple arbitrage," said Paul.

Though Paul hinted that he was matching the bet as a joke given his belief "No one was going to bet [Wall] $1M on this or even $100K," neither is likely to lose big time no matter what happens to the Bitcoin price.

If the bet is accepted and the S2F model fails, they would each receive $1 million.

If the price model proves to be correct or even underestimates Bitcoin's future growth, then they will have plenty of money to pay out as the crypto asset would have reached an astronomical value.