What BitMEX scandal? Bitcoin futures data shows traders focused on $12K

BitMEX used to be the indisputable leader of Bitcoin futures trading and if something similar to yesterday's civil enforcement action were to happen back in 2015-2018 the crypto markets would have completely collapsed.

The futures market nearly ignored the entire event and this is a strong indicator that investors remain bullish.

As shown above, BitMEX held nearly 50% of the market share until July 2019.

After the Black Thursday market correction saw Bitcoin price drop below $3,600, competitor exchanges scrambled to offer similar services and this led to BitMEX losing its dominant position throughout 2019.

Some in the crypto community believe that BitMEX's ban of U.S. clients was the primary culprit for the loss of market share, and others point to their aggressive liquidation engine as the catalyst.

The above chart shows a 5.4% or higher annualized 3-month contract premium for every exchange except BitMEX. Essentially, professional traders are signaling that their expectations were not harmed by yesterday's events.

If anything to be taken away by yesterday's news, it's that this is an exchange-specific issue with little to no impact on overall futures markets.

Even if the total aggregate figure didn't change, an exodus from BitMEX to other exchanges would be reflected in open interest data.

Regardless of BitMEX's diminishing importance in volume and pricing, a government-backed action against a top-5 exchange would certainly have dampened the price had market sentiment been neutral or negative.

Historically, all of these events tend to inject uncertainty into the markets and the fact that Bitcoin derivatives' data continue to hold steady during such turbulent news flow suggest that $12K may be tested sooner than one might think.